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The Top Ten Crapshoot

By Michael Trzinski, 11/08/14, 9:45PM CST

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Is there any method to my madness?

For the high school hockey teams in Wisconsin, the first official practices are less than 48 hours away. Over 120 boys and girls teams will meet on the ice with their coaches for the first time since last March.

And as always, the experts at Wisconsin Prep Hockey (WiPH) will posit their pre-season Top Tens for both the boys and girls.

I don't pretend to know the rationale for my cohorts' selections, but please allow me to offer a wee bit of insight into my picking process.

I usually take last season's Final Top Ten with a grain of salt, because many of the teams will be losing star players to graduation (or maybe even junior hockey).

My method includes looking at where the team 'was' last season and where it 'might be' this year, based on expected losses and a limited knowledge of gains to this year's roster.

Coaches don't always hype their incoming players, so it can be a guessing game as far as the freshmen and new players are concerned. It is easy to look at WEHL rosters, but those don't always show the talent of the players. Yes, you can check stats, but once the WIAA season rolls around, it is a whole new puck game.

I do some research and check out the awards section on the Wisconsin Hockey Coaches Association (WHCA) website.

I assign 'scores' to players that made last year's All-State team and All-Conference teams. A team receives a 'plus' score for returning players and a 'minus' score for graduated players.

Players that are performing on this year's Team Wisconsin squads add points to their high school team's 'score.'

WEHL players also increase the 'score' that their high school teams have accrued.

Let's see, what else?

I look at this year's returning players and attempt to project this year's stats based on last year's performance and the fact that instead of being a second-line player, they are now on the team's top line and will be defended more closely than last year.

Returning goalies also add to the mix.

Will this year's senior match his .967 save percentage from last year? Yeah, he only played 102 minutes, but he (or she) was awesome, right? That has to carry forward to this year.

Defensemen are a whole new story because as we all know, stats don't always tell the whole story. If a team loses four seniors and gains four freshmen, it is a 'plus' or 'minus?'

And, what happens if a coach retires and a new one comes in? Does the team get worse or better after the coach that had a .475 winning percentage leaves and a young 23-year-old former player for that team takes over?

There are probably a few things I left out, but I can always add those in later.

So that is how I rate the top teams prior to the season. It is a pretty straight-forward method and one that is guaranteed to be almost always accurate 99.5% of the time.

Check back with me in December, would you?